Market Trends

The wave trend in stocks paused its turn down on negative volume trend while volatility crept higher.

Stocks – Wave Trend bearish

Year to Date

Large-Caps – Wave Trend bearish

Small-Caps – Wave Trend bearish

Volume – Wave Trend negative

Volatility – Wave Trend negative, trending higher

Outlook

  • Short-Intermediate Term – bearish
  • Long Term – bearish
  • Rationale: Valuations, Economic/Deflationary trends

Jobs – Good News

The US Department of Labor reported for the week ending August 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,006,000, a decrease of 98,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 2,000 from 1,106,000 to 1,104,000. The 4 week moving average was 1,068,000, a decrease of 107,250 from the previous week’s revised average.

Jobs – Bad News

The string of 20 straight weeks above the million mark just ended 3 weeks ago but claims are back above that milestone for the last two weeks.

Relief

Ths is an ominous picture because the Congressional Covid stimulus expired on July 25.

That’s when the last weekly stimulus check of $600 was sent.

As of August 28, consumers will have missed 5 weekly checks of $600 each.